Herd Immunity or Business Activity Greatly Increasing?
The first answer to the title is based on what you consider the end. If you are looking for full herd immunity in the US, estimates cluster around fall 2021. If you are looking for greatly increased business activity, estimates cluster around May/June 2021. We use multiple forecasts and opinions for our suggestions here as we do not have a crystal ball, but we do understand data.
Vaccine distribution and inoculation will be well underway across all states by April which should be accompanied with much lower hospitalization rates and deaths. These events will cause state and local governments to reduce restrictions on human movement. When the positive effects reach your business depends on your industry, geographic location and how you have pivoted your business operations.
Our previous blogs on the pandemic focused on how to plan and what to do to make your business a winner. This blog is about when to get moving and what to expect in the overall business climate. For most of us, Q2 and Q3 will see improving demand. If you are in hospitality, airline or related industry, consensus opinion is that mid to late 2022 will be your upswing. Our past blogs messages were:
- Resolve to survive and thrive after the pandemic has run its course. Success comes through detailed plans.
- Reimagine your business focus, using more technology in operations and streamline processes.
- Build resilience in your team and reform the thinking of those that see themselves as victims.
- Return employees to a new environment of both on site and remote work with a focus on doing the “right things.”
- Develop multiple plans and the trigger points for when to change. Build confidence across the board within your culture where attitude is “we got this.”
Assuming you have done some of the five areas of focus above, then your time to act is now – if you want to hit the ground running in 90 days:
- Prioritize revenue opportunities and launch targeted marketing campaigns to win back customers.
- Act with urgency and make sure your team understands that the window of opportunity is beginning to open. Act like a start-up and be purposeful in focus on the goals rather than the existing process.
- While doing step #2, think about how to become more “agile” in sales and operations. How do we get the right things done quicker and focus more on results? Don’t panic; plan with attention to detail.
- Examine your value chain and determine where you can partner with suppliers and distributors to make your supply chain more agile. Can you share inventory with suppliers and your distributors to make them more agile and improve your combined ability to respond to rapid change?
- Reimagine sustainable operations by outsourcing non-critical functions. Outsource some of your overhead functions to reduce fixed costs. Outsource some product or service preparation to reduce capital needs.
We are practicing what we preach and doing these steps with our client companies and within C Squared Solutions.
C Squared Solutions provides interim or fractional CFOs, COOs and CEO advisors in nearly all industries. We used the process described here for our 2020 exit and 2021 plan. Give us a call and we can discuss your concerns and next steps.